Elsmere, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

602
FXUS61 KPHI 251742
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
142 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure slides by to the north this evening as a cold
front moves through late tonight. This front will meander near
the area on Saturday, before lifting back north as a warm front
on Sunday. Another cold front will approach the area later
Sunday ahead of high pressure returning for Monday. Yet, another
front appears to loom on the horizon around midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Front sliding south across the Great Lakes and Northeast
combined with passing shortwave and lots of excessive heat and
humidity should make for at least a partially active evening.
As of early this afternoon, storms are just starting to develop
across northeastern PA and southern NY, and they`ll start making
their way into our forecast area shortly. As they interact with
the building heat and humidity (temps 90s, dew points well into
the 70s resulting in heat indices topping 100 for most and 105
for many), shouldn`t have too much trouble getting some severe
downdrafts thanks to excessive DCAPE. For these reasons, a
severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for much of the area,
mainly northern Delaware northward, until 9 PM. Aside from the
severe risk, anything that lingers too long could also become a
flash flood risk, especially over the flashy urban corridor,
but overall expect storms to move fast enough such that it still
looks isolated.

Extreme heat warnings and advisories expire by 9 PM, which may
be too late, but either way, storms should mostly be thru the
region by then as well based on latest CAMS. May not quite have
cleared areas south of Philly, but with loss of insolation
they`ll likely be weakening regardless. Front, however, lingers
well north and won`t cross many areas until very late at night
or early Saturday morning, so most of the region will remain in
sticky 70s for lows.

Front takes on a more back-door orientation on Saturday, finally
allowing a noticeable air mass change. This should bring a more
stable and overall more pleasant day, but dew points likely
remain in the 70s across the Delmarva. 60s should reach Philly
and some parts of northern NJ might drop into the 50s. However,
the front will stall not far away, and as warmth and moisture
start overriding it, a few showers or a t-storm might develop
near where the boundary stalls close to our southern/western
border. Highs mostly 80s with heat indices in the 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For Saturday night, there looks to be a complex of showers and
storms that will continue moving eastward towards the area as it
rides along the frontal boundary. This will bring increasing
POPs, especially over portions of eastern PA. There remains some
uncertainty on how long this complex will persist and if it
will tend to weaken as it moves eastward towards the coast. For
this reason POPs are highest (around 50-60 percent) over our far
western zones from Berks County north towards the Poconos and
lower farther east.

Sunday looks to be the more unsettled of the two weekend days.
Showers/storms may be ongoing into Sunday morning due to the
complex moving in Saturday night that may linger into Sunday.
There may then be a lull by around late morning into the early
afternoon before more showers and storms develop in the
afternoon as the front will be lingering in the area. Given that
there may not be much of a break between the two waves, there
doesn`t look to be much sun for Sunday which should keep
temperatures and instability relatively lower. For this reason,
the main threat in terms of hazardous weather looks to be heavy
rain and the potential for at least localized flash flooding.
Convection has the potential to be fairly widespread with PWATs
maxing out around 2.25 to 2.5 inches helping add to the flood
threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term period as a whole will remain seasonably warm
with humid weather continuing through the middle portion of the
week. To start out the week, high pressure will be in control as
the area as it will remain wedged in between weather systems.
This should be the driest day of the period with mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures and humidity will begin to gradually
increase through the mid-week period causing chances for diurnal
showers and thunderstorms to develop each afternoon especially
north and west of the urban corridor. By Wednesday, we`ll likely
see another cold front approach the region before crossing
through by Wednesday night. This should bring cooler and drier
conditions for the end of next week.

In terms of warmth, we`ll likely observe temperatures anywhere
between 5-10 degrees above normal through Wednesday, before
returning to more seasonable temperatures by Thursday. With the
increasing humidity by mid-week, will most likely surpass 100
degree heat indicies for most of the interior outside of the
Poconos - so another round of heat headlines may be warranted.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...Primarily VFR. 40-70% chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening which may cause
temporary VSBY/CIGs restrictions. Tempo groups now at all
terminals. Winds out of the southwest become more out of the
northwest later today around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...A broken line of showers and thunderstorms moving
through may result in a brief period of sub-VFR conditions until
around 03z, otherwise primarily VFR. Winds go from northwest to
eventually north/northeast by Saturday morning. Moderate
confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday night...Showers/storms return
Saturday night into Sunday bringing the potential for sub VFR
restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather expected.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are expected through Saturday. South-
southwest winds around 10-15 kt rest of today. Winds may
occasionally gust up to 20 kt this afternoon into this evening
along the northern NJ coast. Seas around 2-3 feet. There is a
chance (40-60%) for showers and thunderstorms this evening which
decrease in coverage overnight. Winds shift northeast overnight
into Saturday at 10-15 kts with seas remaining 2-3 ft.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected.
Winds will largely remain below 20 kt with seas around 2-3 feet.
Chances for showers/storms over the waters return later
Saturday night into Sunday. Fair weather returns for next Monday
and Tuesday.

Rip Currents...

Today, south to southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Breaking waves in
the surf zone will average around 1-2 feet. The prevailing
swell will become shorter around 4-6 seconds. As a result, there
is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for
both the Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches.

For Saturday, the surface winds become northeast to east 10 to
15 mph. Breaking waves in the surf zone will average again around
1-2 feet. Swells should remain low enough and therefore
continued with a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents for both the Jersey Shore and the Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Due to the new moon occuring on July 24, some spotty minor
coastal flooding may occur again with the high tide tonight
into Saturday and Saturday night into Sunday. The most likely
locations for any spotty minor tidal flooding are along the
Delaware Bay, as well as around Cape May. No coastal flooding is
anticipated along the northeastern portion of Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record breaking temperatures are forecast for Friday and
Friday night into Saturday morning. Records for our climate
sites are listed below:

Record High Temperatures
                          July 25
Site                  Record/Year
Allentown (ABE)           95/1939, 1949, 1999, & 2016
AC Airport (ACY)          99/2010
AC Marina (55N)           96/1999
Georgetown (GED)          99/2010
Mount Pocono (MPO)        90/1999
Philadelphia (PHL)        97/2016
Reading (RDG)             97/2016
Trenton (TTN)             97/1999
Wilmington (ILG)          96/1987 & 2016

Record Warmest Low Temperatures
                          July 26
Site                  Record/Year
Allentown (ABE)           76/1995
AC Airport (ACY)          77/1949
AC Marina (55N)           78/1995
Georgetown (GED)          78/1985
Mount Pocono (MPO)        69/1937
Philadelphia (PHL)        80/1995
Reading (RDG)             77/1995
Trenton (TTN)             78/1899
Wilmington (ILG)          78/1995

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-
     071-104-106.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for PAZ054-055-
     060>062-101>103-105.
NJ...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ010-
     012-013-015>019-021.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001-007>009-
     014-020-022>027.
DE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for DEZ002>004.
MD...Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons
LONG TERM...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Guzzo/RCM
MARINE...AKL/Fitzsimmons/Guzzo/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI
CLIMATE...PHI