Elsmere, Delaware 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

573
FXUS61 KPHI 131120
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
620 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A dry trend continues in the forecast for Thursday and Thursday
night. Light wintry precipitation remains possible over the
weekend, however the chance of any significant amounts appears
low.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonably warm and tranquil through tonight.

2) A storm system will bring some light rain and snow Wednesday
afternoon through early Thursday morning, followed by much
colder and blustery conditions through Friday.

3) A couple systems could bring some light wintry precipitation
over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonably warm and tranquil through tonight.

A warm front will lift north of the area later this afternoon
as low pressure tracks across southern Canada. Otherwise, broad
and elongated high pressure over the Deep South extending into
the western Atlantic remains in control through tonight. While
mostly sunny skies are expected for the first half of the day,
clouds will be increasing late in the day and into tonight with
the warm front passing through. Under a warm air advection
regime with light southerly flow, anticipate highs to top out in
the mid 40s to low 50s. Lows tonight will remain above freezing
for most locales, mainly in the mid to upper 30s. Aside for a
stray shower north and west of the I-95 corridor tonight, dry
weather is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A storm system will bring some light rain and
snow Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning,
followed by much colder and blustery conditions through Friday.

A strong upper-level trough is forecast to pivot into the East
late Wednesday through late Thursday before lifting out into
Friday. The strength and orientation of this trough will be a
key driver regarding surface low pressure strength and track. A
positively tilted upper-level trough lasting longer will keep
low pressure weaker and more out to sea, while a neutral to
especially negatively tilted trough will result in a stronger
and westward storm track. The model consensus continues to
support a low impact system due to the trough closing off
farther north and the trough axis remaining more positive to
neutral longer.

An initial system tracks to our north with its cold front
arriving during Wednesday. As the trough continues to amplify
eastward, a new surface low develops along or near an existing
baroclinic zone mostly off the Carolina coast, however it looks
to mainly miss our area. The overall synoptic lift with the
initial system and cold front should result in the development
of a precipitation shield Wednesday and Wednesday night. This
could be more focused initially across eastern Pennsylvania
before pivoting eastward Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning as colder air works in. If enough moisture remains as
the colder air deepens, then rain would change to some snow
before ending for parts of the area. Any snowfall accumulations
would be very light, if any. A dusting is possible northwest of
the fall line, and perhaps as much as 1" in the southern
Poconos. There will probably be another area of precipitation
developing well offshore associated with the secondary low, but
this now looks to remain well offshore.

One of the forecast challenges has been whether this system can
consolidate into one main storm for our area, and the overall
trend remains much less conducive for this. As a result, chances
for precipitation Thursday remain low (10-20%), which is mainly
due to the potential for lingering light precip early in the
day. The forecast for Thursday night is now completely dry.

It will be mild ahead of this upper-level trough Wednesday
(highs in the mid 40s to low 50s), which will support initially
rain everywhere, then strong cold advection takes place
Wednesday night through Thursday night. Much colder air follows
for Thursday through Friday. Temperatures should be in the mid
20s to near 30 degrees in most areas by dawn Thursday, but a
breezy WNW wind will produce wind chills in the teens to low
20s. These wind chills will continue much of the day Thursday as
WNW winds 15-25 mph persist with gusts around 30-35 mph
possible at times. Highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

As strong cold advection continues into Thursday night,
temperatures are forecast to fall into the teens to low 20s by
dawn Friday. A persistent westerly wind will produce wind chills
in the single digits area wide, and below zero in the southern
Poconos, some of the coldest so far this winter season.
Remaining cold Friday with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s and
maximum wind chills only in the low to mid 20s.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A couple systems could bring some light wintry
precipitation over the weekend.

Following an upper-level trough in the previous key message,
the upper-level trough pattern looks to remain in the East for
the weekend and early next week. The depth of the trough looks
to be strong on much of the guidance, which will support surface
low pressure in the East. It will also keep the cold air in
place. The latest trend in guidance for this period is toward a
less impactful, lower QPF event that could come from 2 separate
rounds (one Saturday, one Sunday), however uncertainty remains
high during this period. Details regarding the evolution of the
mid level dynamics remain unclear at the moment, which will
ultimately determine timing and type of any precip that occurs.
At the moment, combined QPF appears quite low, and it is
possible some areas end up seeing just some sprinkles or
flurries at most. We`ll need to keep an eye on the trends for
the weekend period given the dynamics at play. PoPs were lowered
to 20% with this update. Following a brief return to normal
temperatures Saturday, below normal temperatures look to return
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...VFR. Mostly clear skies with increasing clouds in the
afternoon. South-southwest winds around 7-12 kt with a few gusts
up to 15-20 kt possible in the afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with mostly cloudy to overcast skies. A few
showers possible after 06Z, mainly northwest of I-95 corridor,
but confidence is not high enough to include in TAFs at this
time. South-southwest winds around 5-10 kt. Low-level wind
shear likely between 00-09Z. Moderate-high confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Restrictions likely
developing Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night in low
clouds and periods of light rain/snow. Gusty WNW winds
developing late Wednesday night.

Thursday...VFR. Gusty WNW winds.

Friday and Saturday...VFR. Gusty SW winds possible Friday. LLWS
possible Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all Atlantic Coastal
Waters beginning 6 PM today through tonight. No marine
headlines are in effect for the Delaware Bay.

West-southwest winds around 10-15 kt this morning will settle
out of the south-southwest this afternoon. Winds will increase
to around 15- 20 kt late in the day with gusts up to 25-30 kt
through tonight. Seas around 2-3 feet today building to 3-6 feet
tonight. Fair weather expected outside of SCA conditions.

Outlook...

Wednesday...No marine hazards expected.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Small Craft Advisory
conditions expected with WNW winds 20-30 kts, and a brief
period of gale force wind gusts possible.

Thursday night...Freezing spray possible. Seas may linger near 5
feet across the Atlantic waters.

Friday and Saturday...No marine hazards anticipated, however
wind gusts may briefly increase to around 25 kts Friday evening.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Gorse/Staarmann
AVIATION...DeSilva/Staarmann
MARINE...DeSilva/Staarmann